Earnings Growth Expected To Increase From Here

Second quarter earning season kicks into gear in the coming week and a lower bar seems set by a number of firms. Downward estimate revisions are occurring in twice the number as upward estimate revisions. As it stands now, second quarter earnings are estimated to be lower than the same quarter last year by 1.9%,…

The ‘Everything Rally’ May Be Over – And That’s A Good Thing

This week may have marked the end of the vaunted “everything rally”, and that wouldn’t necessarily be a negative development. In the US, equities of course pressed to new highs, helped along by Jerome Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill, where the Fed chair essentially confirmed that a July rate cut is, in fact, the base…

Weekly Economic Release Summary: Employment Growth In Decline

For months, our interpretation of JOLTS (BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) has been that employment growth will be slowing. JOLTS again this past week continues to reaffirm the slowing growth forecasts. The graph below shows the general correlation between non-farm payrolls (red line) and JOLTS (blue line). As we have been forecasting based…