Keeping Bonds As A Buffer

Last year was unusual: U.S. equities and 10-year Treasuries both finished down, as heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for higher short-term rates drove markets. We see growth as the key market driver in 2019. This suggests Treasuries may offer more diversification benefits as a buffer to bouts of equity weakness. Chart of the…

Opportunities As Oil Nears Bottom

Key points Oil prices could be close to a trough, and we see selected opportunities emerging ahead of a recovery. The U.S. and China put further tariffs on hold for 90 days. We see this boosting risk assets in the short run. Economists expect strong U.S. non-farm payrolls growth in November, and the data will…

The Prospects For Emerging Markets

Key points We see room for a further recovery in emerging market (EM) assets, particularly equities, after an unexpectedly prolonged selloff. The Fed raised rates last week, and Italy released a draft budget that was more expansionary than expected. Brent crude hit a four-year high. Polls suggest Brazil’s election on Sunday will result in a…