A Closer Look At Debt And The Economy
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Tag: EQWS
Keeping Bonds As A Buffer
Last year was unusual: U.S. equities and 10-year Treasuries both finished down, as heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for higher short-term rates drove markets. We see growth as the key market driver in 2019. This suggests Treasuries may offer more diversification benefits as a buffer to bouts of equity weakness. Chart of the…
You Can’t Debunk MMT
Back in 2010, I came across Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) for the first time and found it somewhat appealing. This is the theory that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez promoted along the way to her meteoric rise to Congress. MMT is a theory of economics that says some pretty controversial stuff – the government has a real budget…
Fed Pulls The Punchbowl, Part 2
In the “Fed Pulls the Punchbowl” part 1, I discussed some of the liquidity shifts we’ve seen in the credit markets over the last year or so. Since then, we’ve seen the market fall 3,000 points from ~24,500 to ~21,500 only to bounce back in the middle of this zone with the 1,000 point up…
Powell Doctrine: Festive 2018 Update And 2019 Outlook
Zoologists have just named a new creature, which buries its head in the sand, after President Trump. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell narrowly came in a close second on the list of eponyms. After his performance at the latest FOMC meeting, Mr. Market has graded Chairman Powell’s parochial, dual mandate fixated view as a global failure.…
Every Bubble Is In Search Of A Pin
Now that the world’s central banking cartel is taking a long-overdue pause from printing money and handing it to the wealthy elite, the collection of asset price bubbles nested within the Everything Bubble are starting to burst. The cartel (especially the ECB and the Fed) is hoping it can gently deflate these bubbles it created,…
Will Santa Leave A Lump Of Coal?
As we enter the last month of the year, the holiday season is kicking into full gear, decorations are popping up everywhere, and the burning question arises, “Will Santa Claus bring gifts for stock market investors, or will he leave a lump of coal in their stockings?” It was a bumpy sleigh ride last month,…
Is The October Selloff Really ‘The Big One’?
Back on October 11, when U.S. stocks were careening lower for a second consecutive day in a dubious encore to the previous session’s systematic rout, BofAML’s Michael Hartnett noted that the bank’s Global Breadth Rule had triggered a buy signal. “89% of MSCI country equity indices are below their 50 and 200-day averages”, Hartnett said,…
U.S. Equity Leadership: 3 Key Trends To Watch
By Alec Young, managing director, global markets research The yawning gap between US and international equity performance that has been building since 2011 persists unabated. Through mid-September, the Russell 1000 Index has generated a year-to-date total return of 9.6% compared to a 4.4% decline for the FTSE All-World ex US Index and a 10.1% decline…