Keeping Bonds As A Buffer

Last year was unusual: U.S. equities and 10-year Treasuries both finished down, as heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for higher short-term rates drove markets. We see growth as the key market driver in 2019. This suggests Treasuries may offer more diversification benefits as a buffer to bouts of equity weakness. Chart of the…

How The Federal Reserve Sees The Economy

Officials at the Federal Reserve moved ahead and raised the policy target range for the Federal Funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent. I think that it important to see that the vote for this change was unanimous, showing the desire of the leaders of the Fed to show President Trump, and the world,…

Every Bubble Is In Search Of A Pin

Now that the world’s central banking cartel is taking a long-overdue pause from printing money and handing it to the wealthy elite, the collection of asset price bubbles nested within the Everything Bubble are starting to burst. The cartel (especially the ECB and the Fed) is hoping it can gently deflate these bubbles it created,…

Cue The Bad

When the FOMC published the minutes for their November policy meeting, they included an unusually lengthy discussion about federal funds (effective) and IOER. I have no doubt that policymakers would rather have skipped the topic altogether. Demonstrating how little they actually control matters, the plight of EFF has forced them into an almost detailed digression.…

Will Santa Leave A Lump Of Coal?

As we enter the last month of the year, the holiday season is kicking into full gear, decorations are popping up everywhere, and the burning question arises, “Will Santa Claus bring gifts for stock market investors, or will he leave a lump of coal in their stockings?” It was a bumpy sleigh ride last month,…