This Is A Crucial Moment In Market History

“While it would be unfair to say that either the Fed or the market is clueless, no one is sure whether we are facing the definitive downswing in the current economic cycle, or another mini-pause.” That’s from a short Friday note by SocGen’s Kit Juckes, who was weighing in on Paul Tudor Jones’s suggestion that…

JPMorgan’s Global PMI – Growth Is Slowing, Not Stopping

A PMI Is A Guide To Future Economic Activity As investors we obviously want to have a window onto the future. If we know what’s going to happen then we can position ourselves to benefit from it. Thus the value of indicators like a purchasing managers index. This is not, as with GDP, a reading…

Market Commentary – May 23, 2019

Deteriorating broad market trends suggest downside risks for the S&P 500 are growing more acute.The percentage of stocks and industry groups in uptrends is contracting and the new low list is expanding.Increased volatility has reduced investor optimism, but evidence of a marked increase in pessimism is lacking.

Market Update: Sovereign Wealth Funds And Volatility

By OpenMarkets Jack Bouroudjian explains how sovereign wealth funds are affecting recent market volatility. The top ten funds represent $10 trillion in global market value, and the re-weighting of the MSCI Index could have major implications. “Today, the funds are playing a large role in the direction of every market around the world,” Jack says.…

Weekly High Frequency Indicators: The Tariff Tantrum Takes Top Billing

Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.” In…

The Pivot In U.S.-China Trade Policy May Herald Long‑Term Tension

In any trade negotiation, the last few innings are usually the most fragile since that is when more difficult issues are addressed, and the U.S.-China negotiations in early May are certainly proof. We had shared in the growing optimism that a deal would be secured given the political appetite on both sides, although we did…

Market Commentary – May 9, 2019

SummaryAfter a robust rally to begin the year, stocks are now in the midst of their most significant pullback of 2019.Continued strength from leading groups (like Semiconductors) and evidence of a quick shift in investor sentiment would be consistent with a consolidation that is limited in degree and duration.Further deterioration in sector-level trends and other…

Weekly Economic Vital Signs: The Economy Is Great, Cut Rates!

Construction Spending We must be filling every pothole nationwide, because there isn’t a whole lot of spending growth outside of the public construction of streets and highways, which is up 22.8 percent year over year for the first two months of 2019. Perhaps, the president passed his own infrastructure program without telling anyone about it.…

The Latest Jobs Report Was Not Really That Great

Well, yet another month has passed, so it is time for another jobs report. Fortunately, this one was a lot better than last month’s as the number of new jobs created surged compared to February and ultimately managed to beat expectations. Unfortunately, the average hourly earnings came in well below expectations and the number of…

Forget About Recessions

There will be another U.S. economic recession as assuredly as the sun will come up tomorrow. The problem is that no one knows when it will occur or what will trigger its onset. In fact, it will likely be over by the time it is officially recognized. Seven months after the Great Recession had officially…