Weekly Market Notes – March 11, 2019

SummaryThe most recent economic data fits with our 2019 outlook that suggests economic growth is likely to slow this year but recession prospects remain very low.The current weakness in the equity markets should be viewed within the confines of a consolidation phase that is likely to continue until such time as a firm trade deal…

A Closer Look At Debt And The Economy

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Top 5 Charts Of The Week: USA & China Macroeconomic Trends

Here’s some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar (originally posted on LinkedIn). I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Hope you enjoy! 1. U.S. Economic Optimism: Here’s an interesting chart – it shows the…

Poor EMU PMI Compounds ECB’s Challenge

Overview: The eurozone’s preliminary composite PMI for January fell to its lowest level since July 2013. It reinforces expectations for a dovish Draghi press conference and saw the euro unwind yesterday’s gains. The US dollar is firmer against all the major currencies. Asian stocks gained, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a two-day fall…

The Wolf Street Report: January 20, 2019

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What’s Powering January’s Market Rally?

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist Erik Ristuben and Sophie Antal Gilbert, head of AIS business solutions, discussed the recent rally in equity markets, developments on the Brexit front and the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on consumer and business sentiment. Markets on the rise, but declining consumer…

Keeping Bonds As A Buffer

Last year was unusual: U.S. equities and 10-year Treasuries both finished down, as heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for higher short-term rates drove markets. We see growth as the key market driver in 2019. This suggests Treasuries may offer more diversification benefits as a buffer to bouts of equity weakness. Chart of the…

You Can’t Debunk MMT

Back in 2010, I came across Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) for the first time and found it somewhat appealing. This is the theory that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez promoted along the way to her meteoric rise to Congress. MMT is a theory of economics that says some pretty controversial stuff – the government has a real budget…

2018 Market Commentary And 2019 Outlook – Vigilante No More

Data Source: Bloomberg 2018 Year-End Market Commentary and 2019 Outlook – Vigilante No More Source: istockphoto.com Note to readers: We have sectioned the 2018 Year-End Market Commentary and 2019 Outlook accordingly: 1. Big picture outlook and key issues heading into 2019 2. Summary 2018 year-in-review 3. Final thoughts and our base case estimate of the…

Fed Pulls The Punchbowl, Part 2

In the “Fed Pulls the Punchbowl” part 1, I discussed some of the liquidity shifts we’ve seen in the credit markets over the last year or so. Since then, we’ve seen the market fall 3,000 points from ~24,500 to ~21,500 only to bounce back in the middle of this zone with the 1,000 point up…