The ‘Everything Rally’ May Be Over – And That’s A Good Thing

This week may have marked the end of the vaunted “everything rally”, and that wouldn’t necessarily be a negative development. In the US, equities of course pressed to new highs, helped along by Jerome Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill, where the Fed chair essentially confirmed that a July rate cut is, in fact, the base…

More Fed Money Printing In The Near Future Would Have No Positive Effect On The Real Economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials are monitoring the implications of the trade war and “will act as appropriate to sustain the [economic] expansion.” Powell even seems warm to the idea of bringing back quantitative easing (aka “QE”) and removing the “unconventional” stigma from it in order to make it a more…

Podcast: Market Resilience: Strength In Numbers

By Sonal Desai, Ph.D., Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income; Edward D. Perks, CFA, Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions; Michael Hasenstab, Ph.D., Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Templeton Global Macro; Stephen H. Dover, CFA, Executive Vice President, Head of Equities Concerns about where the financial…

The Queen Of Spades

“Luck is believing you’re lucky.” – Tennessee Williams While enjoying a much-needed short break from blogging, hence our uncommon silence, we still managed to follow the macro news such as February’s anemic 20,000 new jobs creation in the United States from the latest nonfarm payroll report (when 180 K was expected). With global negative yielding…

A Closer Look At Debt And The Economy

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Interest Rate Outlook: U.S. Treasuries Likely To Be Stuck Between Better-Than-Expected Growth And A Dovish Fed

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The Wolf Street Report: January 20, 2019

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Keeping Bonds As A Buffer

Last year was unusual: U.S. equities and 10-year Treasuries both finished down, as heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for higher short-term rates drove markets. We see growth as the key market driver in 2019. This suggests Treasuries may offer more diversification benefits as a buffer to bouts of equity weakness. Chart of the…

Fed Pulls The Punchbowl, Part 2

In the “Fed Pulls the Punchbowl” part 1, I discussed some of the liquidity shifts we’ve seen in the credit markets over the last year or so. Since then, we’ve seen the market fall 3,000 points from ~24,500 to ~21,500 only to bounce back in the middle of this zone with the 1,000 point up…