Interest Rate Outlook: U.S. Treasuries Likely To Be Stuck Between Better-Than-Expected Growth And A Dovish Fed

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The Wolf Street Report: January 20, 2019

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Keeping Bonds As A Buffer

Last year was unusual: U.S. equities and 10-year Treasuries both finished down, as heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for higher short-term rates drove markets. We see growth as the key market driver in 2019. This suggests Treasuries may offer more diversification benefits as a buffer to bouts of equity weakness. Chart of the…

Fed Pulls The Punchbowl, Part 2

In the “Fed Pulls the Punchbowl” part 1, I discussed some of the liquidity shifts we’ve seen in the credit markets over the last year or so. Since then, we’ve seen the market fall 3,000 points from ~24,500 to ~21,500 only to bounce back in the middle of this zone with the 1,000 point up…

How The Federal Reserve Sees The Economy

Officials at the Federal Reserve moved ahead and raised the policy target range for the Federal Funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent. I think that it important to see that the vote for this change was unanimous, showing the desire of the leaders of the Fed to show President Trump, and the world,…

Every Bubble Is In Search Of A Pin

Now that the world’s central banking cartel is taking a long-overdue pause from printing money and handing it to the wealthy elite, the collection of asset price bubbles nested within the Everything Bubble are starting to burst. The cartel (especially the ECB and the Fed) is hoping it can gently deflate these bubbles it created,…

Cue The Bad

When the FOMC published the minutes for their November policy meeting, they included an unusually lengthy discussion about federal funds (effective) and IOER. I have no doubt that policymakers would rather have skipped the topic altogether. Demonstrating how little they actually control matters, the plight of EFF has forced them into an almost detailed digression.…

Will Santa Leave A Lump Of Coal?

As we enter the last month of the year, the holiday season is kicking into full gear, decorations are popping up everywhere, and the burning question arises, “Will Santa Claus bring gifts for stock market investors, or will he leave a lump of coal in their stockings?” It was a bumpy sleigh ride last month,…

This Week In Money – December 1, 2018

Ross Clark – Crude oil’s decline, interest rates, gold. Rick Ackerman – China/US Trade, G20, interest rates and the car business. James Corbett – Japan, China, steel quality. Larry Reaugh President & CEO of American Manganese Inc. Jared Lazerson President & CEO of MGX Minerals Produced by HoweStreet.com

Dollar: Range-Bound Or Trending?

The US dollar had a good week, appreciating against all the major currencies but the Swiss franc, and most emerging market currencies, with a couple of notable exceptions, including the Turkish lira and the South African rand. However, the dollar’s gains seemed to be more a function of negative developments abroad rather than positive developments…